The gloves are off and it's everybody's fight
In My View
By Pat Williams
The Republican and Democratic conventions were not the most important events of this political season. It is what happened prior to and following the two conventions that have moved and sorted American's opinions about Kerry and Bush.
The conventions were worth tuning into. If you didn't watch the Democratic Convention, you missed seeing the political equivalent of a meeting of the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff: admirals, generals, officers and enlisted men parading the exploits and leadership of Lt. John Kerry, who closed the final scene of that military extravaganza by "reporting for duty." It was all, frankly, a bit surreal.
If you didn't tune into the GOP Convention, you missed seeing a political version of the TV hit "Fear Factor." Speaker after speaker sent up an orange alert but, ironically, not one of them mentioned Osama Bin Laden.
Georgia's U.S. Senator Zell Miller for the Republicans and Illinois Democratic Senate candidate Barack Obama were the keynoters. Miller is the last Democrat who votes with the Republicans 95 percent of the time. Miller is known for his southern corn-pone mixed with political vitriol. The Bush strategists purposely chose him as their lead speaker. The Democrat Barack Obama's message, favorably received by both Republican and Democratic viewers, was one of uplifting hope, which might seem naive, but the contrast between the strategies of the two parties has seldom been clearer.
The real stories, however, occurred far from the convention halls. Prior to the Democratic Convention, George Bush had experienced a damaging year. He was hammered by negative Democrats and investigative journalists with charges of dodging the draft during Vietnam. From the war in Iraq going wrong to a soaring national debt, to one million lost American jobs, Bush's favorability plummeted by an incredible 35 percent. Just prior to the Democrats' convention, a stumbling interview with ABC's Tim Russert had further damaged Bush, who, by the time the Democrats gathered in Boston, had fallen behind Kerry in the polls.
Then came the stars, bars and salutes at the Democratic Convention. However, even before Democrats had departed Boston, the Republicans' vaunted negativity machine jumped into high gear. Former President Bill Clinton used to call it "the Republican's Killing Machine." It was used by Richard Nixon against Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern. The GOP turned the machine loose on Jimmy Carter in 1980 and eight years later against Michael Dukakis. The machine gnawed away at Clinton for eight years. Operated by the Bush dynasty since 1988, the machine was turned inward against fellow Republican and George W. Bush's opponent John McCain just four years ago.
That "killing machine" has been extraordinarily effective for many years in portraying the opposition candidate as weak, untrustworthy or, as in the current campaign, a "flip-flopper." The Bush campaign spent 25 million dollars in 30 days to portray John Kerry as indecisive. Those who don't believe negativity works should now ask themselves why Bush has pulled ahead in the polls.
The anti-Kerry political organization, Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, took a big piece of his hide. With now proven ties to the Bush killing machine, the negative Swift Boat ads questioned the Democrat's valor and bravery, and the ads' simple viciousness had the Kerry campaign reeling.
Just prior to the Republican Convention George W. Bush was interviewed on another of those, for him, dangerous live one-on-one interviews with Matt Lauer of "The Today Show." Bush, the self-proclaimed "War President," stumbled badly, declaring that the war on terror was unwinnable. Within 48 hours, in the most obvious flip-flop of the season, Bush appeared before an American Legion Convention saying that the war on terror was indeed winnable. On that discordant note, the Republican Convention began.
As with the early Democratic Convention, it made for relatively bland television, but it was ripe with negative personal attacks on John Kerry. The Democrat wobbled, delayed, and finally on the night the GOP convention ended, flew to Springfield, Illinois, where he gave an ineffective, off message, rambling response to the negative attacks. After-convention polling showed Bush got the bounce.
What's next? The Bush polling bounce is now receding, Cheney badly overplayed the terror card, the Iraq toll has reached one thousand Americans dead, and this year's national debt is $440 billion. Meanwhile, the Kerry campaign is struggling to right itself. It appears certain that the gloves are permanently off for both sides. So…what's next is anybody's guess and everybody's fight.
Pat Williams served nine terms as a U.S. Representative from Montana. He teaches at The University of Montana, where he also serves as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West.