Tourism is No. 5 polluter

Ski areas without snow, beaches eroding as polar ice melts and oceans rise, forest fires running rampant across mountain ranges, wetlands turning into deserts while deserts get flooded - these are some of the gloomier forecasts tourists will face in the 21st century, according to some climate-change models.

But tourists have to take some of the blame for these impacts, according to literature surveyed by the Institute For Tourism and Recreation Research at the University of Montana-Missoula. Norma Nickerson, Laura Becerra and Phil Zumstein issued their survey results in an August report.

"Tourism is ultimately a part of the climate change issue," they said. "If tourism were a country, it would be in fifth place after the U.S., China, Russia and India as a major polluter."

The biggest problem is transportation, particularly air travel, which accounts for 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, a major contributor to the atmospheric greenhouse effect predicted by scientists. Automobiles account for 32 percent, and accommodations account for 21 percent, according to a report cited by ITRR.

According to a 2009 Pew Research poll, 49 percent of Americans believe humans are causing climate change, compared to 70 to 80 percent of people on average around the world. Recognizing climate change as a "hot" topic, the ITRR researchers conducted an Internet and academic search and found 221 publications discussing tourism and its impact on climate change.

"Some articles discussed the idea that our society may need to re-think our mobility and desire to ‘travel for the sake of travel,'" they reported.

Some articles suggested travelers could become more sustainable by using buses or trains or by staying in one central area, while others called for new technology or a behavior change by tourists.

"Some ask whether transportation can be sustainable at all," they reported.

One book ITRR reviewed discussed the concept of "slow tourism," which encourages tourists to stay and play in one area rather than move around. But attitudes of tourists and tourist businesses alike may be difficult to change.

"Travelers seem to be well aware of climate change issues, but most are not willing to change their travel," the ITRR researchers reported. "Behavioral change by business owners tends to occur when it affects their bottom line - either through the demands of their clients or through savings in energy and other resources."

Tourists and businesses will adapt, the literature suggests, with some models extending to 2050 and 2080. Ski areas will either turn to snow-making or move to higher-elevation areas. Warmer weather could mean longer tourist seasons in mountain areas and Alaska. Some tropical islands will drop off the tourist-destination list.

The literature suggests that tourism will grow in the northern and southern areas of the globe, and while ski seasons may shrink, mountain tourism will increase in spring and fall. The ITRR researchers agreed with the literature that Americans need to recognize expert opinions about climate change.

"We would argue that climate change mitigation by the tourism industry should become part of a ‘normal' conversation worldwide," they concluded.