Economists see positive signs for Flathead County

Flathead County is a player in bullish growth projections for Montana made by state economists at the annual Economic Outlook forum in Kalispell on Feb. 14.

“Flathead County probably will be the fastest-growing (county) in the western region,” Paul Polzin, director emeritus of the University of Montana’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research, said.

Polzin and bureau director Patrick Barkey led presentations at the forum. The bureau has traveled the state for nearly 40 years to deliver half-day seminars and make predictions about economic growth.

The two predict the Flathead County economy will grow about 2.7 percent this year, slightly lower than the 3 percent growth projected statewide. Polzin and Barkey expect that level of growth to remain fairly constant through 2017.

There has been a solid rebound in Flathead’s construction industry, but it’s not back to pre-recession levels, Polzin pointed out.

Eastern Montana remains the growth juggernaut, but the evolution of the Bakken oil boom is entering a cost-containment phase, Barkey said.

After 2013 growth in Montana’s economy wound up lower than 2012, Barkey said the overriding question has been, “Is this the year for breakout growth?” The answer seems to be yes, this may be the year.

“Declines in the Western Montana economy are over, and metro areas west of the divide are again making a contribution to statewide growth,” Barkey said. “The vigorous oil-related growth in the east continues, but the big news in the 2014 outlook is that declines in the west are over.”

Employment remains a challenge in Montana because the state has a smaller share of jobs in the high-paying end of the spectrum, Barkey said. Montana has a disproportionately high number of jobs in lower-paying professions such as the accommodations and retail industries.

The improved United States economy has meant renewed growth in nonresident travel and better worldwide economic trends have improved conditions in high-tech manufacturing, he added.

Barkey said he believes 2014 will be a better year for the U.S. economy, and that western states like Montana will lead that growth. The West is closer to Asian markets, and that has been a benefit.