Fire season forecast for the Flathead

Fire experts and officials with state and federal agencies expect an average fire season in the Flathead Valley this year, although they said that June’s weather and precipitation will be telling.

“When you look at the national forecast, the outlook for the Northern Rockies is probably an average season,” said Rick Connell, a fire management officer for the U.S. Forest Service, at a press briefing Tuesday organized by the Forest Service, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation and National Park Service.

Last year, according to Connell, the valley saw above-average rainfall in May, but the precipitation rate dropped throughout the summer. Had the region not benefited from an influx of moisture from a hurricane last year, Northwest Montana likely would have seen another 100,000 acres burnt, Connell said. 

This year, the valley has experienced a higher level of precipitation, which is why fire danger remains low. But looking at the forecast for June, it doesn’t appear that much more moisture will arrive, Connell said. It is important for all agencies to continue monitoring the weather and its effects on fire conditions, he said. 

“Here’s what I can tell you now: We’re not going to have an early season,” Connell said, pointing at current moisture levels. 

Typically, it takes six weeks of drying before the first large fire sparks, according to Jeremy Harker, fire management officer for Glacier National Park. 

The season should have a normal start in mid to late July, Connell said, with an average number of fire starts and less than 100,000 acres likely burnt. 

Going into the season, agencies pointed toward the importance of firefighter safety, civilian preparedness – to include observing fire restrictions – and collaboration between various government agencies on fire suppression efforts.  

“There are dangers out there, so we look at how we can mitigate it to the best of our ability,” said Lincoln Chute, Flathead County fire warden.